„A glass of wine a day is healthier than complete abstinence.”

The J-curve (“a little beats none”) is a cohort artefact: the abstainer group contains people who quit because of illness (“sick quitters”). Filtering that out (Stockwell 2023, 107 studies, n=4.8 million) and in Mendelian randomisation (Millwood 2019, n=512,715), no amount protects. GBD 2022 puts the safe amount at zero under 40 and ≈0.5–1 drink a day over 40 as the level where risk doesn't rise meaningfully. Cancer risk (breast, bowel, oesophagus) is linear from the first glass. The choice can be yours — but not for health.

Last reviewed: 6 September 2026

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